The Return of Draft Analytics: The Prospect Graduation Probabilities System (pGPS)

Jeremy Davis
May 04 2016 02:55PM

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The ability to predict the success of hockey prospects at young ages has long been a goal in the business of hockey. Now more than ever, the success of young players is directly related to the success of an NHL team. For the most part, rosters are built through the draft, rather than trades and free agency. Knowing who will is likely to be successful and who is likely to fail can be the difference between winning and losing in the future - and that can subsequently be the difference between employment and unemployment for the person who is choosing the players.

It wasn't that long ago (although it seems like ages) that Canucks Army had access to such a tool. PCS, the Prospect Cohort Success project developed by Money Puck and Josh Weissbock, used historical data to project players in the here and now. Unfortunately, we lost access to the system when those two were hired by the Florida Panthers.

As you may have noticed, we've been using comparable percentages to assess prospects again over the past couple of months, beginning with this article here. It's been a bit of a mystery until now, but it's time to pull back the curtain. Draft and prospect analytics are returning to Canucks Army and the Nation Network. This is not a rebirth of PCS, but instead an alternative, using similar underlying principles.

This is pGPS: the prospect Graduation Probabilities System.

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NHLN Playoff Notebook: Boyle Foils an Islanders Win, Smashville Smackdown, and A St. Louis Blue-out

Scott Maxwell
May 04 2016 09:35AM


The Tampa Bay Lightning faced three deficits in game three, including one with a minute left, but managed to overcome the odds and slip ahead 5-4 in OT. The Nashville Predators looked to get on the board in the series, and did so with the help of the captain. The St. Louis Blues laid a beat down on the Dallas Stars in their home debut of the series.

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NHLN Playoff Notebook: Shots don't matter, goals matter

Adam Laskaris
May 03 2016 08:04AM

One game in the NHL on a given night is kind of a mixed bag of emotions. It's nice to be able to focus just on one game, without having to channel flip or worry you're watching the wrong one. When it's finished, there's no overtimes to catch, no debates if you should stay up late, or anything of that nature.

On the other hand, when there's only one game of NHL hockey, it leads to weird scheduling trends, as there's three lined up for tomorrow, then just Washington-Pittsburgh again Wednesday. There's probably a good reason why, but it's 

With that being said, here's what went down last night:

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NHLN Playoff Notebook: Sharks go up by two, everybody else gets even

Cam Lewis
May 02 2016 07:30AM

A lot of things happened in the hockey world this weekend! The Penguins, Lightning, and Blues evened their respective series at one game each, and the Sharks put a two game stranglehold on the Predators. Nashville needs to stop taking penalties. The Islanders need to, uh, get some shots on net, but first, they need to get the puck. The Capitals need to ask themselves why exactly they allow Tom Wilson on the ice, because whatever it is he's doing, it isn't helping. And none of this will mention the Leafs winning the draft lottery! Woo!

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Trading Up In The NHL Draft: Is It Worth It?

Shawn Reis
May 01 2016 11:25AM

Hockey Twitter wasted no time getting back to work.

With the first piece to the Leafs 2016 draft puzzle put in place after the team won last night's lottery, attention quickly turned to Toronto's later 1st round pick via Pittsburgh as well as the team's own 2nd round pick which sits firmly at 31st overall.

Specifically, the question was raised about whether or not this was the year it would make sense to trade up from those two spots in order to acquire another higher-end prospect, possibly a defenseman.

My initial instincts were to jump into the argument and tell the people that thought trading up was a good idea that they were wrong.  After all, don't the numbers tell us that it's typically a bad idea?

Don't they?

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