Eastern Conference Moves, January 13-20

Brent Morris
January 22 2013 08:47AM


'Yes, I really did get four guys on waivers this week, and hopefully next week I'll get four more.'

Hello all, and welcome to Weekly Moves, a column about the moves made by NHL teams that should appear here every Sunday night at least up until the trade deadline.  Chase Warren, Josh Lile, and myself will be alternating writing the column each week, so if you hate one of us, 2/3rds of the time you're in luck!  Normally the column will cover all waiver transactions, trades, recalls, relevant demotions, and signings (that affect the NHL team).  However, given the sheer volume of moves made in the last week, I decided it's prudent to eliminate all waiver transactions that did not result in a player being claimed, as well as all 'recalls'.   This column owes a large debt to Christina Kahrl's 'Transactions of the Week' at Baseball Prospectus, but I hope it can grow out of that potential shadow.

I'll be covering the Eastern Conference this week, Chase will have the Western Conference.  Next week, Josh will take everything.

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Toronto re-signs Joffrey Lupul for five years

Cam Charron
January 20 2013 11:36AM

Not a bad weekend for Joffrey Lupul. A win on opening day, and a $26-million payday.

Toronto was rumoured to be in discussions with Lupul last night, and today they inked him to a five-year extension. Lupul was slated to be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Joffrey Lupul has some offensive talent and bounced around the league with stints in Anaheim, Edmonton, and Philadelphia before clicking on Toronto's top line with Phil Kessel. Since then, he's boosted his assist totals, and has produced like a dynamic offensive player worth of extension.

But the contract is problematic, especially locking up a player with a track record like Lupul's. Here's why:

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NHL Power Rankings 2012-13: NHL Numbers Writers Weigh In

Ben Wendorf
January 19 2013 09:24AM


                                          by Kareemadel, via Wikimedia Commons

Keeping in mind Derek's solid post from yesterday, we at NHL Numbers nevertheless felt a need to put together a NHL Power Rankings list for the coming season (in fact, the first "full" NHL season during which this site has functioned). Including me, Jonathan Willis, Derek Zona, Cam Charron, Kent Wilson, and Chase W., each contributor was asked to make their rankings and include a brief sentence or two summary on their ranking. Jonathan used those rankings to create a composite ranking, and now I weave in the prose. To save some space, the commenters I'm using below include one whose ranking was a bit of an outlier from the others and one who provides a pretty good summation. Let's get to them, starting with a real hack pick if I ever saw one... 

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Luck Can Dominate A 48 Game Schedule

Derek Zona
January 18 2013 09:25AM

Dice, luck

In any given NHL season, pure luck accounts for 38% of the standings.  66% of a season's save percentage is luck.  Shooting percentage?  Mostly luck.  Luck dominates single-season results because the sample size is so small - 82 games, a limited number of iterations to allow for the skill signal to separate itself from the noise of the season.  In smaller segments, crazy things happen: horrible teams masquerade as playoff teams, terrible goaltenders look like Vezina winners, lottery teams can lead a conference.  In a lockout-shortened 48-game season, expect luck to take center stage and manifest itself in wondrous ways.

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"It's a 48 game season, so every game matters."

Derek Zona
January 17 2013 08:52PM



Sports writers love the cliched and the inane, and the NHL lockout has given them a cornucopia of delights.  Of those delights, one is being used, nay abused, by nearly all of them.  "In a 48 game season, every game matters/counts."  And fans love the narrative.  Don't believe me?  Check out Twitter.  Though, to be fair, only about half of those tweets are from fans - the rest are sports writers.  Check the news

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