Luck Can Dominate A 48 Game Schedule

Derek Zona
January 18 2013 09:25AM

Dice, luck

In any given NHL season, pure luck accounts for 38% of the standings.  66% of a season's save percentage is luck.  Shooting percentage?  Mostly luck.  Luck dominates single-season results because the sample size is so small - 82 games, a limited number of iterations to allow for the skill signal to separate itself from the noise of the season.  In smaller segments, crazy things happen: horrible teams masquerade as playoff teams, terrible goaltenders look like Vezina winners, lottery teams can lead a conference.  In a lockout-shortened 48-game season, expect luck to take center stage and manifest itself in wondrous ways.

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"It's a 48 game season, so every game matters."

Derek Zona
January 17 2013 08:52PM

 

 

Sports writers love the cliched and the inane, and the NHL lockout has given them a cornucopia of delights.  Of those delights, one is being used, nay abused, by nearly all of them.  "In a 48 game season, every game matters/counts."  And fans love the narrative.  Don't believe me?  Check out Twitter.  Though, to be fair, only about half of those tweets are from fans - the rest are sports writers.  Check the news

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Number Chains - January 17th Links

Josh L.
January 17 2013 12:01PM

 

This new, regular feature on NHLNumbers will share interesting stats-related posts from around the web almost every day.

Welcome. In this space you will be able to find the best analytical hockey writing from around the internet on a close-to-daily basis. Subject matter will include statistical evaluation, financial analysis, contractual issues, and (sometimes) closely-related tangential works. If you have something you would like to submit for a future edition (your writing or that of someone else) feel free to send it to me via Twitter @JoshL1220 or leave a comment.

Jeff Bell of Columbus Biz Insider writes that the Blue Jackets season ticket base is down to an alarmingly low 7,000 people. He spoke with Blue Jackets president Mike Priest, who had this to say:

“Our product has to deliver,” Priest said. “It needs to be competitive and deliver the value commiserative with what you’re asking people to spend with you.”

It's amazing to me that a franchise with one playoff appearance in their history is having trouble attracting fans after dealing away their best player and missing half of a season of games. I think I can speak for many of us when I say that today I am thankful that I don't work for the Blue Jackets sales department. That must be a really depressing place.

A weeks worth of other, hopefully, less depressing links await you.

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Seth Jones Catches Nathan MacKinnon In The 2013 NHL Draft January Consensus

Derek Zona
January 16 2013 08:07PM


Photo by leech44, via Wikimedia Commons

One is a tall, lanky defenseman who skates like the wind, hits like a train and handles the puck like no other defenseman in the draft in the last few years.  The other is a short, stocky forward, who skates like the wind, attacks like Taylor Hall and fills the scoresheet like no forward in the draft since...Taylor Hall. Seth Jones and Nathan MacKinnon are running away with the 2013 draft rankings, and while MacKinnon holds a slight edge, it's essentially a dead heat.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

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The 10 Most Interesting Players on Today’s Waiver Wire

Jonathan Willis
January 13 2013 01:18PM

The return of the NHL season means the return of the waiver wire! TSN’s Bob McKenzie, as he always does, has today’s news on that front. After the jump, a look at the ten most interesting available players.

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