The NHL Numbers Annual - Our Summer Project

Derek Zona
August 01 2012 02:19PM

NHL Alternate Logo

August is a great time for hockey.  Last year's losers are sure to be next year's winners thanks to the draft and free agency.  Every borderline prospect is just on the verge, every perennial power is set to take a step back and every rebuilding team is set to move to the next level.  While most hockey journalists decry August as the "dog days of summer", the "lazy hazy days of summer", or the "dog days of summer", the writers at NHL Numbers are going to use August as additional time to explore, experiment, test and learn.

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Forwards and NHLE - 2010 Draft

Scott Reynolds
August 01 2012 08:42AM

Taylor Hall

Photo by Alesiaxx via Wikimedia Commons

Over the last couple of days, I've looked at all of the forwards chosen in the 2012 and 2011 entry drafts. Today, we're moving on to the great Taylor v. Tyler debate of 2010. Two years out, those two players are still at the top of the pile, but many of the others in the top ten aren't yet playing in the NHL. If you've read the methodological explanations already, feel free to skip down to the results. 

In the chart below, I've taken each player's goals, assists and points, converted them to a "per game" rate, multiplied them by the league equivalency number, and then expressed them as an "NHL equivalency" assuming an 82-game NHL season. As you may have guessed, each league has a different equivalency number. I've used this article for the translations from the KHL (multiply offense by 0.83), SEL (0.78), CZE (0.74), FNL (0.54), NCAA (0.41), WHL (0.30), OHL (0.30) and QMJHL (0.28),and this article for the translations from the USHL (0.27), AJHL (0.16), and BCHL (0.14). With these players getting older, there are now only a few leagues that have drafted players but no translations, and if you're playing there (ECHL, minor European league), that's probably a bad sign.

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Scott Howson's interesting track record

Corey S.
July 31 2012 09:15AM

By 5of7 (Antoine Vermette) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (], via Wikimedia Commons

Over the last seven months, no general manager has been flogged more than Scott Howson of the Columbus Blue Jackets. His team came into last season with some promise only to finish dead last in points and a skeleton of what they were a year ago. Some of the things that went wrong for the Blue Jackets were beyond Howson’s control but he reacted in the worst way possible and Columbus is going to pay the price for it for years to come. The Blue Jackets and Howson’s reputation might be in shambles but something that gets overlooked is that Howson did a decent job in at least trying to build a contending team in Columbus.

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Projections for Rick Nash on the Rangers

Eric T.
July 30 2012 07:23AM

Rick Nash
By 5of7 (Rick Nash), via Wikimedia Commons

Corey has already laid out some Rick Nash facts. Now that we know where he'll be playing next year, I'm going to take a stab at projecting how his production might change if he is on a line with Brad Richards. 

To do that, I'll make estimates at how much the following factors might adjust his performance up or down from last year:

  • How much more (or less) ice time will he get? (Affects goals and assists)
  • How many more (or fewer) shots will his new line generate? (Affects goals and assists)
  • How did last year's shooting percentage compare to his established career performance? (Affects goals)
  • How should we expect his new linemates to affect his shooting percentage? (Affects goals)
  • How much better (or worse) are his new linemates' shooting percentages? (Affects assists)
  • How will his power play production change? (Affects goals and assists)

Obviously this will require some guesswork, and I'm not arguing that the season will play out exactly according to my arithmetic, but working through the results in this manner gives us a good baseline expectation for what is reasonable and for how important each of these factors is. Let's see where it takes us.

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Forwards and NHLE - 2011 Draft

Scott Reynolds
July 29 2012 05:13PM

gabriel landeskog

Photo by Sarah, via Wikimedia Commons, CCL

Yesterday, I looked at all of the forwards drafted in 2012 using NHL equivalencies. There were some interesting questions raised about methodology (and what multiplier to use for each league), but we'll continue for the next three days using the same multipliers before re-evaluating what changes might be appropriate to use in the future. That said, today, we move on to tracking the progress of those forwards drafted in 2011.

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