Improving AHL Equivalencies: AHL to NHL Shot Metrics Translations

Kent Wilson
July 18 2012 01:40PM



The following work is based on data collected and analyzed for two previously published articles at Habs Eyes on the Prize appearing here and here.

By: Stephen Cooper


Ever since Gabe Desjardins calculated the first NHL scoring equivalencies from NHL feeder leagues, the use of NHLE has been standard for “fancystat” analysis of prospect players. The original system has been refined by many, including Bruce Peter of Puck Worlds and Rob Vollman of Puck Prospectus. But the basic system of looking at only goals and points on a per game basis has remained essentially the same since the venerable and terrifying Desjardins made his first foray on the subject.

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Goaltenders with and without Ken Hitchcock

Cam Charron
July 17 2012 01:26PM



This has been cooking for quite some time, but I'm finally getting around to posting a little bit of data I've collected. In an effort to better understand goaltenders, I've compiled even strength save percentage numbers from and have begun filing through them.

Jonathan Willis wrote a post about Dave Tippett and Ilya Bryzgalov over at Cult of Hockey where he concluded that a lot of goalies were prone to fluctuations in save percentage and that coaches can't really control a goaltender's save percentage. I was interested, because I'd been looking a bit at Ken Hitchcock's work.

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Quantifying players' impact on teammate shooting percentage

Eric T.
July 17 2012 08:39AM



One recurring source of debate is the question of how much a playmaker improves his linemates' shooting percentage.

Just asking whether some players repeatedly post high on-ice shooting percentages is not digging deep enough. Every year, the Canucks have an above-average shooting percentage during the minutes that Henrik Sedin is on the ice, but how much of that is because he individually shot for a high percentage, how much is because he played with teammates who are skilled at taking dangerous shots, and how much is because he actually helped his teammates' shooting?

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NHLNumbers Podcast: A Look at Free Agency, with James Mirtle

NHLnumbers Podcast
July 16 2012 01:12PM



In the latest installment of the podcast, we discussed the not-so-frenzied free-agent frenzy.

In the first part, Corey, Chase and I talked about the signings, including what Parise and Suter mean to the Wild, where Detroit will go from here, the Carey Price and Jonathan Quick contract extensions as well as the Tampa Bay Lightning signing Matt Carle.

James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail was kind enough to join Brent and me to talk about the big signings, what Burke has up his sleeve in Toronto and the CBA negotiations.

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Looking at AHL goaltenders vs. NHL players

Rob Pettapiece
July 16 2012 06:53AM



One of the problems with analyzing minor-league stats is the quality of competition. You could have a "fifth-liner" who's great against AHL players but can't hack it in the NHL. The same problem exists with goalies, who can put up great numbers against these fifth- and sixth-liners, skaters who aren't good enough to play a level higher. This varying level of talent in the minors makes it harder to figure out whether that .920 or .930 save percentage actually means anything for that goaltender's potential NHL career.

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