Nations UFA Frenzy Live Chat

Kent Wilson
July 01 2012 09:47AM

Join us at 12pm MST (10am EST) to criticize, mock or applaude all the big additions and/or mistakes NHL GM's will make today.

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Picking Through Second Pairing Defensemen

Robert Vollman
June 29 2012 04:42PM



In a previous piece we looked at top line defensemen and found out two keys facts: there will be very few available through free agency, and some of the most effective top pairing defensemen were elite defensemen paired up with guys who were previously on 2nd or 3rd pairings. 

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Asking the Right Questions - The Imprecise and Unattainable

Kent Wilson
June 29 2012 02:01PM



"Not many people have grace."
"Well, you know, grace is a tough one. I like to think I have a little grace. Not as much as Jackie O...."
"You can't have a little grace. You either have grace or you don't."
"Okay, fine. I have no grace."
"And you can't acquire grace."
"Well, I have no intention of getting grace."
"Grace isn't something you can pick up at the market."
"Alright, alright, look, I don't have grace, I don't want grace, I don't even say grace, okay?" 

- Seinfeld

Previously we discussed how asking the wrong questions is the first misstep management of lackluster teams can take in the off-season, with a particular focus on being skeptical of small outbursts of success amidst a general sea of mediocrity. This time around, I want to look at how fans and decision makers can get wrapped up in psychoanalyzing their players or agonizing over fuzzy, non-specific but apparently plausible factors.

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Asking the Right questions - Beware Small Samples

Kent Wilson
June 28 2012 04:52PM



(This is part one of a three part series that was originally published in April. With free agency season approaching, we figured it was worth a re-post here on NHLNumbers.)

It occured to me recently, after watching Brian Burke bloviate, Jay Feaster deflect and Steve Tambellini ramble during their respective year-end press conferences, that the true issue facing mediocre (or worse) teams is not whether an executive has all the answers - it's if he has the wherewithal to ask the right questions.

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On the scoring chance project, and why it must continue

Cam Charron
June 28 2012 02:29PM



Whatever tendency certain players might have for driving their team to get more scoring chances than a simple shot differential predicts is small and swamped by random noise. This suggests tracking scoring chances isn't adding much information to the readily available shot differential numbers.

That's from Eric on this very blog earlier this week. I'm willing to believe that, too. Over the course of the season, when I was tracking chances for Vancouver, I found that when the Canucks out-chanced a team, they were really not in a position to win the game all the time.

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