The Draft Files: The Historical Cohort Based Approach Gets Its Sham On

money puck
April 11 2015 10:00AM

Later today, the Washington D.C. Hockey Analytics Conference will take place, as a handful of online analytics personalities will gather at Georgetown University to present a variety of studies and findings in the field of hockey analytics. Our own MoneyPuck will be in attendance to present the following study on simulating former entry drafts based on his height and scoring cohort success percentage model, so let's wish him the best of luck!

One of the passions that most of us at Canucks Army share is the desire to improve how teams draft players. This should come as no surprise, given that most of us are long suffering Canucks fans that have had to live with having one of the league's worst draft records

Much ink has been spilled in the analytics community on the importance of scoring at the junior level as an indicator of future success, with many analysts lamenting the perceived bias teams have in selecting size over skill. Josh Weissbock and myself addressed this in our work on predicting the future NHL success of both forwards and defensemen. We found small players had a lower likelihood of making it in the NHL than their taller peers who produced at the same rate offensively. Smaller players that did make it were generally prolific scorers at the junior level. Far from a validation of drafting size over skill, the implications of the study were rather intuitive and predictable: draft the higher scorer, and if scoring is equal, pick the bigger player. 

So given this information, can we out-draft an NHL team? Find out after the jump.

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The Roundup

Nation World HQ
April 10 2015 06:30AM


Canucks, Jets and Flames all headed to the playoffs, Brendan Shanahan's tight ship, Kings miss, can the Oilers ever change, Keegan Lowe fights twice in NHL debut, breaking down trade deadline a month after the deals and more in this weeks Roundup brought to you by DraftKings.

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Draft Reform: Boo Lottery, Yay Auction!

Cam Lewis
April 09 2015 11:28AM

What follows is an article from Nation Network senior collective bargaining agreement correspondent and corporate lawyer @BeantownCanuck. You may remember him from his stellar work on rule 13.23, or his piece on the penalties for cap floor violations

Today Beantown discusses a way in which the NHL can move away from the classic draft format into an auction style system that maintains the fairness and continuity of the current system, but also works out some of its kinks. 

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The Nation Drafts Playoff Pool: Play for Charity, Fun, and Glory

Ryan Pike
April 09 2015 09:27AM


It's nearly the end of the hockey season, and while we're starting to get excited at the prospect of the playoffs(!), we're also excited to announce the return of something we do every year at this time: the Nation Drafts playoff pool!

The Nation Drafts playoff pool is fun, inexpensive, proceeds benefit a worthy cause, and you could win prizes! What's not to love? Read on for more details.

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TWO GAMES LEFT: An in-depth look at how the playoff races can play out over the next few days

Cam Lewis
April 09 2015 08:00AM

Two points separates five teams in the Eastern Conference with two games to go. The picture is similar in the West, as three teams separated by just three points of one another teams duke it out for the final two playoff spots. Simply put, these last two games are huge. Any of Calgary, Winnipeg, Detroit, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh, or Boston could relinquish their spot to Ottawa or Los Angeles. 

What are the possible playoff scenarios? What’s most likely to happen? Let’s take a look.

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