The 10 Most Interesting Players on Today’s Waiver Wire

Jonathan Willis
January 13 2013 01:18PM

The return of the NHL season means the return of the waiver wire! TSN’s Bob McKenzie, as he always does, has today’s news on that front. After the jump, a look at the ten most interesting available players.

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Number Chains - January 10th Links

Josh L.
January 11 2013 03:51PM

 

 

This new, regular feature on NHLNumbers will share interesting stats-related posts from around the web almost every day.

Welcome. In this space you will be able to find the best analytical hockey writing from around the internet on a close-to-daily basis. Subject matter will include statistical evaluation, financial analysis, contractual issues, and (sometimes) closely-related tangential works. If you have something you would like to submit for a future edition (your writing or that of someone else) feel free to send it to me via Twitter @JoshL1220 or leave a comment.

 Luke DeCock of The News & Observer has the first post lockout doom and gloom article I've come across. In his recent article he goes into the potentially negative consequences of the new CBA on the Carolina Hurricanes:

Many of the problems the Hurricanes had with the NHL’s old labor deal remain in the new one. Even though salaries will go down to start, over the course of the deal they’re still being asked to grow revenue at the same pace as their bigger-market brethren.

“The market’s still going to continue to grow, which is going to be helpful,” Hurricanes general manager Jim Rutherford said Thursday. “Hopefully the economy continues to grow. And hopefully our team plays well. You get those three factors, then that makes that road a little smoother. If you don’t get all three, it makes it a little harder. And if you don’t get any, then it becomes a little more unrealistic, maybe very, very difficult.”

He goes on to discuss the fact that the Hurricanes, like every NHL team, will also lose out on broadcast and licensing revenue in "make whole" payments.

It isn't all bad though. He goes into some of the benefits to the Hurricanes (and other teams):

Restrictions on contract length and structure should help the Hurricanes by making it more difficult for high-payroll teams to sign and retain players, while the new ability of teams to retain portions of salaries in trades should open up new trade possibilities.

.....The Hurricanes should still get about $12 million per season [in revenue sharing], but Rutherford said the team will have to raise ticket prices in the near future to meet the NHL’s gate-receipt targets.

Over the next few years we'll see how things go. More links after the jump.

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Why Your Team Is Going To Keep 'Burning' Entry Level Contract Years (So Stop Complaining About It Already)

Brent Morris
January 11 2013 01:38PM

 

 

Some fans may end up hating Morgan Rielly (above), but it's not his fault.

There hasn't been a puck dropped or a skate laced for the NHL season yet, and yet some NHL fans are hopping mad about something.  It's not the lockout, it's not a signing that their team made over the summer, it's not ticket prices.

It's Entry Level Contracts, or ELCs.

Any player who signs with the team he was drafted by signs an Entry Level Contract. Depending on a player's age, it may go for one, two, or three years - contracts signed when a player is between 18 and 21 are 3 years.  

Most of the best players in the league were originally on ELCs. The great thing about entry level deals is that there's a yearly maximum a guy can be paid - as of 2011-12, a player could only receive a maximum salary of $925,000 per season. That's an enormous bargain when we consider that players like John Tavares and Tyler Seguin were on ELCs last year.  

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Number Chains - January 9th Links

Josh L.
January 10 2013 05:43PM

 

 

This new, regular feature on NHLNumbers will share interesting stats-related posts from around the web almost every day.

Welcome. In this space you will be able to find the best analytical hockey writing from around the internet on a close-to-daily basis. Subject matter will include statistical evaluation, financial analysis, contractual issues, and (sometimes) closely-related tangential works. If you have something you would like to submit for a future edition (your writing or that of someone else) feel free to send it to me via Twitter @JoshL1220 or leave a comment.

Apparently Ilya Kovalchuk wants to stay in Russia, but can't. Kovalchuk told Slava Malamud of Sport-Express the following (via Fire & Ice):

“I want to stay in St. Petersburg but I have contractual obligations in the NHL, which will be hard to break,”

Malamud later clarified that Kovalchuk meant that he would return for the 2013/14 season. You could take this quote any number of ways. The obvious route is to play the "enigmatic Russian" card. Of course Kovalchuk wants to break his contract. He's Russian, isn't he?

Maybe I'm crazy (a distinct possibility), but I don't take it as Kovalchuk wanting to abandon the NHL. I see it as the quote of a man enjoying his time playing at home, lamenting the fact that he can't continue to stay to finish what he started this season. This seems like a completely overblown story, especially considering the fact that Kovalchuk has 13 years remaining on his deal. He'll come get his money.

More after the jump.

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STUDYING LUCK & OTHER FACTORS IN PDO

Patrick D. (SnarkSD)
January 10 2013 04:15PM

This stastistical study of the percentages (aka: PDO) came to us from Shark Fan and writer SnarkSD. It is an in-depth, thorough investigation, so be sure to settle in for a long, but interesting, read. We will try to answer any questions in the comments for anyone not well versed in statistical theory.

Abstract

Objective: Define the standard deviation in all strength non-shootout, and even-strength excluding empty net PDO (the sum of shooting percentage and save percentage). Separating the variance into that accounted for by chance, and that accounted for by talent. Investigate variables that may influence PDO. Calculate Points-Per-Game (aka, Expected Points, or EP) for a league average team, given a non-one PDO.

Methods: Data from the 2005-2006 through 2011-2012 season was extracted from NHL.com game-logs and imported into excel and STATA to generate linear and logistic models for all strength data. Data was imported from timeonice.com for even strength excluding empty net data. A program in excel was created to randomly select games, generating thousands of iterations for each regression model, with the average of these models shown below. To generate chance data, the normal approximation interval for binomial proportion confidence intervals was used.

Results: The standard deviations, correlations, and standard error of the model over different samples of games was generated and depicted in table 2. Eg. 1 SD at 30 games for all teams (N=210) is 0.0174, with 1 SD for chance being 0.0140. Figure 2 demonstrates Table 2 over a set of 82 games. Teams that fall outside the red line represent ±3 SD from chance, and are therefore highly likely to be suffering from a low or high PDO from poor or exceptional performance, respectively. League average points-per-game (EP) for a single game is shown in Figure 3. Figure 4 demonstrates EP for multiple game samples.

Conclusion: PDO has boundaries of normal variance, both in observed variance, and variance strictly by chance. With the data below one can measure the expected performance in points-per-game for a given PDO. A deviation from the expected results (ie. points-per-game) indicates a deviation in performance outside of PDO, likely the result of shootout and OT performance if not corrected for, followed by factors that influence PDO intra-game, shot%, home/road, and competition.

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