Forbes says Canadian teams are healthy; American teams not so much

Jonathan Willis
November 28 2012 12:29PM

Forbes annual look at the business of hockey was released on Wednesday, and if their estimates are accurate Canadian NHL teams are far and away the healthiest group of franchises in the game.

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Number Chains - November 27, 2012 Links

Josh L.
November 27 2012 04:49PM

This new, regular feature on NHLNumbers will share interesting stats-related posts from around the web almost every day.

Welcome to edition number 17 of the rebooted Number Chains. In this space you will be able to find the best analytical hockey writing from around the internet on a close-to-daily basis. Subject matter will include statistical evaluation, financial analysis, contractual issues, and (sometimes) closely-related tangential works. If you have something you would like to submit for a future edition (your writing or that of someone else) feel free to send it to me via Twitter @JoshL1220 or leave a comment.

On Reddit, David Backes, Mathieu Schneider, and Kevin Westgarth did an Ask Me Anything (AMA) chat session. The entire thing is worth reading. Among the highlights:

David Backes on Sidney Crosby

Honest answer is that he is the best player in the game bar none. That being said he is always looking for an edge and that includes working the officials which rubs a lot of guys the wrong way. I haven't had kind feelings for him until this summer working with him in the negotiating room and seeing who is as a person. He is a true ambassador for the game and someone who has gained my respect. - DB

Mathieu Schneider on why he is so "hip"

TOTALLY didn't you see my blog when I was with the Canucks. Short lived until Vigneault ran me out of town :) . My kids have taught me everything I know about Reddit.

Also, David Backes confirms that the members of the NHLPA do, in fact, have an app which gives them lockout updates.

Unfortunately, there is very little in the chat session about the actual lock out. It's still interesting nonetheless.

After the jump mediation, Twitter hacking, and stats-related posts are waiting.

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Where are most NCAA players selected in the draft?

Corey S.
November 26 2012 05:16PM

By Cipriansjr  [CC-BY-SA-3.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Over the last month or so, I have looked at where most NCAA draft picks come from and how often those picks turn into NHL-ers. From this, it was determined that most NHL draft picks come from schools out of the WCHA or CCHA conferences with Minnesota, North Dakota and Michigan leading the way. We know which schools most of the picks are coming from, but a way to expand this study is to see which rounds in the draft these picks are coming from and which schools are being targeted earlier than others.

If you look at some of the recent draft classes, one thing you may notice is that most of the earlier picks come from the major-junior ranks or a European league rather than the NCAA. This year, there were six NCAA committed players selected in the first round and only two the year before. It is understandable to see why there aren’t many NCAA players selected earlier in the draft because their commitment prevents them from making the NHL sooner than a junior hockey star who could possibly have a shot of making the NHL out of training camp. Most prospects aren’t ready at such an early age so this may not be as big of a factor but I’m sure it crosses some team’s minds.

How often are NCAA prospects taken in the first round? Are certain schools targeted earlier than others? How often do picks from the NCAA develop into regular NHL-ers? We will look at all of these issues after the jump.

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Number Chains - November 26, 2012 Links

Josh L.
November 26 2012 04:54PM

This new, regular feature on NHLNumbers will share interesting stats-related posts from around the web almost every day.

Welcome to edition number 16 of the rebooted Number Chains. In this space you will be able to find the best analytical hockey writing from around the internet on a close-to-daily basis. Subject matter will include statistical evaluation, financial analysis, contractual issues, and (sometimes) closely-related tangential works. If you have something you would like to submit for a future edition (your writing or that of someone else) feel free to send it to me via Twitter @JoshL1220 or leave a comment.

We start Monday off right, with what has been called the worst article ever on hockey ever written. It was written by Don Brennan and posted on Slam! Sports. In the article, Don advocates for owners using scabs.

A veteran told me a few days ago: “Put yourself in our shoes. What if your bosses at the Sun said you had to take a 25% pay cut. How would you like that?”

My reply? I wouldn’t. But if I made 70 grand, and they told me I was suddenly going to get half that, I’d sign the deal. I’d have to. I’d like to dig my heels in, but us people in the other working world don’t have the comfort of doing that.

Pretty sure I can’t just go and get a job writing for a paper in Europe, either. Nor can the best in my business.

It gets better.

Open the doors to people who will truly appreciate the job, guys who won’t mind fixing the problems your mismanagement will inevitably create.

They’ll work for less, so you can charge a lot less for tickets.

It's reverse outsourcing up in here. Bring in European hockey players, pay them significantly less in salary, and profit. I mean, it isn't like they could possibly know how much current NHL players make, or access the old Collective Bargaining Agreement under which they operated online in five seconds. The lockout has officially made people crazy.

Some more information on the economic impact of the lockout, decertification, and more after the jump.

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Building a NHL Fantasy Predictor: How Much Playing Time is My Forward Getting Next Year?

Ben Wendorf
November 26 2012 07:51AM


Farting around with % of Attempted Shots (%AttSh) and coach data is fun, but the real bedrocks of fantasy prediction have to be line data and the focus of today's post, playing time. The line data is useful for looking at playing time if you anticipate a drastic change for a forward, while the playing time data can be important in telling us something about how predictive it can be, and whether there are any trends within the data that we need to pay attention to. It's one of the dirtier secrets of boxcar statistics (goals, assists, points), that they are frequently driven by playing time as much as they are driven by skill. Pierre Parenteau could've lived in AHL obscurity forever, but he received the ice-time opportunity that made him a great fantasy add the last couple of seasons.

Let's have a look at what our ice-time data can tell us about the future...

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