Working backwards to figure out the Cup winner

Christiaan Conradie
August 08 2016 03:00PM


Arguably the most basic question in hockey analytics will probably always remain the same: can we use (a given stat) to predict how well (a team/player/lineup) will perform the future? As such, predicting the Stanley Cup champion is a yearly exercise many of us try to do, often testing out a number of hypotheses by mixing in different variables.

The purpose of this article is not so much to figure out which teams could have been expected to have done well, but which ones should not have.  As such, I calculated each teams' goal and shot differentials (the raw data can be found here). 

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The Minnesota Wild need more from their defensive depth

Pat Keogh
August 07 2016 02:14PM

The Minnesota Wild had an uneven 2015-16 season. Starting things off by going 20-10-6 before New Year's Day, they eventually faltered and wound up firing their head coach Mike Yeo over Valentine’s Day weekend. They fared poorly from the new year on, putting up a dismal record of 3-12-4 until Yeo’s departure, but began to settle things down a bit under interim head coach John Torchetti, who saw the team go 15-11-1 during his time, although it is worth noting that the team lost its last five games right before the start of the playoffs.

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Did the Rangers make a mistake with JT Miller's bridge deal?

Pat Keogh
August 02 2016 11:00AM

The New York Rangers found themselves in a fairly unique situation this offseason, with four different RFAs filing for arbitration. Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, JT Miller, and Dylan McIlrath all opted to file for arbitration, although each one of them settled before their set date. 

Chris Kreider was the only one to sign a long-term deal, inking a four-year deal that pays him an average of $4.625 million per year. The other three all signed bridge deals, which may be prudent in the cases of Dylan McIlrath and Kevin Hayes (or not, but that’s a discussion for another day) but with regards to JT Miller, the Rangers might be setting themselves up for more cap issues down the road.

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Team North America's World Cup Squad Could Use Alex Galchenyuk

Megan Kim
August 02 2016 09:00AM

Most World Cup of Hockey snubs have been discussed and put to rest, as rosters were announced nearly two months ago. After all, at some point it feels like the hockey world is just having the same discussion every few years, with the same names popping up every time international rosters are set.

However, the inclusion of two non-traditional teams – North America and Europe – means there’s a brand new subset of snubs to deal with, and one of the most egregious snubs on the Team North America front has barely been discussed outside of Montreal. 22-year-old Alex Galchenyuk’s omission from the final roster is puzzling even at a cursory glance (only Brandon Saad, among players eligible to play for North America, scored more NHL goals this past season), and a closer look at the current roster seems to support that leaving Galchenyuk off the team is difficult to defend.

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adjGSAxGA/60 — A(nother) Different Look at Goaltending

Ian Fleming
July 30 2016 11:00AM

Sometimes grand ideas come in the form of a “eureka!” moment, a brief instant of intellectual clarity, an epiphany of sorts. We’ve all experienced it — that feeling of instantaneous comprehension of some previously unsolvable notion — and it’s glorious. For just that brief pause, we feel like we’re on top of the world.

As cool as it would have been, unfortunately, that is not at all how Adjusted Goals Saved Above Expected Goals Average (adjGSAxGA/60) was derived. It is simply a slightly different way of looking at things, borne from a slow-drip of new ideas and research in the analytics community, blended with an interest in the methodology behind Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) metrics, and with just a splash of the insanity it takes to live deep inside “Goalie Twitter.” So, without further adieu, let’s jump into it.

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