Anaheim commits to Perry: Probably a bad move
Cam Charron
March 18 2013 09:59PM
Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, franchise players for the Anaheim Ducks, each turn 28 in May. According to research done by Gabe Desjardins, that probably means that they're at the end of their peak ages and out of their scoring primes. Ryan Getzlaf re-signed with the Ducks a couple of weeks ago, and tonight it was Corey Perry's term, via Real Pierre LeBrun:
Perry agrees to eight-year, $69 M deal with Anaheim; $8.625 M AAV
— Pierre LeBrun (@Real_ESPNLeBrun) March 19, 2013
PDO numbers by NHL team - Mar 18
Cam Charron
March 18 2013 05:52AM
PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.
NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 3/17/13
Derek Zona
March 17 2013 07:45AM
Photo by Dan4th Nicholas via Wikimedia Commons
Time is running out on those teams chasing cursed lady luck. The Kings have come charging from way back, but Anaheim's goaltenders are keeping the Ducks afloat. The Wild keep hitting the hard-ways and grabbing points from the rest of the conference and get to play the awful Northwest to close out the season - no team outside of the Southeast plays an easier schedule the rest of the way. And the Leafs, oh those Leafs, have used an incredible special teams heater to overcome their shot woes.
These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances. Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model.
We're still tweaking that model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.
Toronto's Penalty Kill Success - Can It Last?
Derek Zona
March 12 2013 12:09PM
Photo by Uwe Kils, via Wikimedia Commons
While the argument in Toronto has centered around shot rates and shooting percentage, there's another metric to keep your eye on in Toronto - penalty kill percentage.
PDO numbers by NHL team - Mar 11
Cam Charron
March 11 2013 09:35AM
PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.
