On the scoring chance project, and why it must continue
Cam Charron
June 28 2012 02:29PM
Whatever tendency certain players might have for driving their team to get more scoring chances than a simple shot differential predicts is small and swamped by random noise. This suggests tracking scoring chances isn't adding much information to the readily available shot differential numbers.
That's from Eric on this very blog earlier this week. I'm willing to believe that, too. Over the course of the season, when I was tracking chances for Vancouver, I found that when the Canucks out-chanced a team, they were really not in a position to win the game all the time.
Is Justin Schultz Worth the Hype?
Thomas Drance
June 28 2012 10:27AM
(This is a trunctated version of a longer Canucks Army post by Thomas Drance)
There are conflicting reports, but it appears as if Justin Schultz, with his representatives from Newport Sports in tow, will begins to hear pitches from individual teams hoping desperately to land the highly touted 21 year old defenseman on Thursday. That's per Bob Mckenzie:
The UFA defenceman and his agents will over the next two days meet in Toronto with a small group of teams he has on his shortlist.
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 28, 2012
NHLnumbers Podcast Post-Draft Edition
Jared Lunsford
June 28 2012 08:07AM
Brent, Chase, Corey, Jared and Matt break down last-week's trades, discuss the oddities of this year's draft and predict where the big-name free agents are likely to land.
Rick Nash Facts
Corey S.
June 27 2012 07:50AM
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons
Aside from Zach Parise and maybe Ryan Suter, no player has been talked about more this off-season than Columbus Blue Jackets star winger Rick Nash. With the Blue Jackets running a sinking ship for almost a year now, it's been no secret that Nash has wanted out of Columbus and GM Scott Howson is looking to deal him. Howson reportedly tried to trade him at the deadline but couldn't get a deal done because none of the offers were up to his standard.
Shot quality revisited: A look at the correlation between scoring chances and shot totals
Eric T.
June 26 2012 10:08AM
- graphic courtesy of The Russian Machine Never Breaks
For two years, my standard explanation for why we pay a lot of attention to shot differential (Corsi or Fenwick) is that it correlates strongly with scoring chances, zone time, and puck possession, and is the best predictor we have of future goal scoring. Each of those claims is based on seminal work by Vic Ferrari and JLikens.
