June 14 2012 02:05PM
Photo by Michael Miller, via Wikimedia Commons
Zone exits are a new development in hockey analytics (or at least they are on the blogosphere) and they are meant to study how effectvie certain players are at moving the puck forward. Most hockey metrics are based on puck possession and driving the play forward. Most plays begin from the breakout game in the defensive zone, and tracking zone exits can give us a better idea of which players are contributing more to pushing the play forward. This is still a work in progress so the method I am using isn't perfect but as of right now, I look for a few different things for when I track zone exits:
Puck Touches: Number of times a player touched the puck in the defensive zone in an attempt to move the puck out of the zone.
Carries: Number of times a player successfully carried the puck into the neutral zone.
Passes: Number of times a player successfully passed the puck into the neutral zone, from the defensive zone.
Other: Number of times that a player successfully moved the puck into the neutral zone without carrying the puck or passing it to another player.
Turnovers: Number of times that a player turned the puck over to the opposing time while still in the defensive zone.
Icing: Number of times the player iced the puck from the defensive zone.
Success Percentage: (Carries + Passes + Other ) / Puck Touches
This is largely based on the method Jonathan Willis used to track zone exits for the Oilers earlier in the season. This is all five on five data.
June 13 2012 08:53PM
Winnipeg made its first move of the off-season this afternoon by retaining Jim Slater's services for the next three years at 1.6M per annum. The 29 year old from Lapeer, MI. scored a career high 13 goals this past season as the Jets' third line center on the so-called GST line with Tanner Glass and Chris Thorburn. The former MSU Spartan was also a primary penalty killer for the club, averaging over 2 minutes a night on the PK, a total higher than any other Winnipeg forward.
June 13 2012 01:58PM
6’3” scoring forward Ludvig Rensfeldt was Chicago’s second round pick (35th overall) in 2010. Chicago, perilously close to the NHL’s 50-contract limit, opted not to sign him and he will re-enter the draft this year. Is he worth a flyer?
June 12 2012 11:39AM
Photo by Bri Weldon, via Wikimedia Commons
Aside from Mathew Dumba's leapfrog of Mikhail Grigorenko, the top 12 in our consensus list remained the same. Nail Yakupov has gone from the strong consensus #1 to the unanimous #1 and Filip Forsberg has lengthened his lead on Alex Galchenyuk, but the list has held steady.
The big movers in June jumped into the back half of the first round. Rogle's Hamphus Lindholm moved five spots to #16, Oshawa's Scott Laughton moved 19 spots to #23 and Henrik Samuelsson moved thirteen spots to #30.
Future Considerations describes Lindholm as "...a very aggressive puck rushing defenseman with a high offensive upside. He starts rushes quickly with his high-end skating ability and vision." But with a significant downside, namely, his defensive game: "He makes bad decisions and is not hard enough on the puck. Inconsistent play is the biggest detraction from Lindholm’s game. He can force things and tries to make low percentage passes that turn into odd-man rushes or scoring chances against."
Hockey Prospectus' Corey Pronman thinks Laughton is "...a quick, smart effective player with an average skill level who is a "does all the little things" type of guy in the lineup and seems to always be around the play." but doesn't think he projects into the top six in the NHL.
The Scouting Report thinks Samuelsson is a grinder, noting he's "...a strong complementary player that does the dirty work, but has enough skill to finish off plays as well." But he isn't going to be an offensive dynamo, "Skating is pretty average, and his offensive puck skills aren’t going to blow you away..."
The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Redline Report, Future Considerations, ISS, Craig Button, Hockey Prospectus, The Scouting Report, and Win Shares via Nick, A.K.A. Mathletic. Their prior records are used to establish a weighting so that the opinions of the more accurate (McKenzie and Button) have more value than the opinions of the less accurate.
June 11 2012 04:44PM
Stop me if you've heard this one: a National Hockey League team overpaid for a bottom six role player. Granted, Chris Kelly had a 20-goal season, a career-high, but he also "led" the NHL in PDO and had a 16.3% shooting rate. Essentially, his percentages, and his age (32 next season) probably indicate that future success from Kelly is a bad bet.