The Log Off Podcast: "Is there blood on our hands?"

Dimitri Filipovic
January 13 2014 04:29PM


"I can't believe the internet hasn't ran with this meme by now, if I'm being honest"

Last time you heard from us, we were openly ridiculing the Winnipeg Jets for the way in which they've been handling their business, from management to coaching to player personnel. Well, one of those has seemingly been fixed, with Paul Maurice replacing Jeff Goldblum Claude Noel behind the bench. Cam assures me that there's no blood on our hands, but I'm not so sure about that.. we were pretty harsh last time out after all. Either way you're welcome, Winnipeg.

As a quick aside: how is it possible that, given the social media era we currently live in, that no one has taken the Kevin Chevel-DAY OFF meme and ran with it? I spent some time searching it up online, and nothing comes up, which is a total travesty. This stuff basically writes itself. Whenever the day comes that he finally gets axed by the club, I hope you all enjoy the Kevin Chevel-LAY OFF headline.

But enough about the Jets. We only spent a couple of minutes talking about them, before using the rest of the show to take a close look at the Eastern Conference playoff race (particularly "the murky middle" as Cam coined it, from spots 5-14). We mostly focused on the New York Islanders (a team which we like, especially if they get their hands on a legitimate NHL goaltender), the Carolina Hurricanes (a team that could be poised to make a run up the standings), and the Buffalo Sabres (who could be really enticing in a few years if they nail their upcoming draft picks).

Click past the jump to stream the podcast!

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Score-Adjusted Fenwick and Remaining Strength of Schedule

Travis Yost
January 13 2014 02:02PM

 

http://nesncom.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/stevenstamkos1.jpg

 

As far as I'm aware, the only NHL-based strength of schedule stuff around the internet can be found through Jeff Sagarin's ratings over at USA Today. Problem, of course, is that goals and goal differentials are great to look at if you want to know why a team currently sits where they do in the standings; it does far less to assist in future forecasting.

Knowing what we know about the predictive value of Score-Adjusted Fenwick (and the fact that it's still not automated anywhere on the internet), I went ahead and compiled the number for each NHL team, accurate through January 14, 2014. Then, I went ahead and compiled strength of schedules based on the average Score-Adjusted Fenwick each club will see through the rest of the season.

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The Log Off Podcast: "Dustin Byfuglien is a Big Blue Circle"

Dimitri Filipovic
January 10 2014 03:33PM


Sup? [GIF via Dan McQuade]

We're back with the 2nd episode of the "Log Off Podcast" in which we discuss hockey ad nauseam until it's time for us to, well, log off. Last time you heard from us was on Monday, when we spent the entirety of the show previewing what we thought Team Canada's roster would look like.

Well, with a few days to let it all sink in and marinate, we now feel it's a good time to take a quick look at who was "snubbed", and what kinds of adjustments we'd make. In case you're looking for a cynical take on the team, then feel free to skip past the first 5 or 6 minutes.. because we seemed to share a fairly positive outlook on the result, all things considered.

After that, we hopped around all over the NHL, talking about the mess that's taking place in Winnipeg right now (spurred by the news that Dustin Byfuglien will be moving back to forward, despite a largely successful run as a blueliner over the past few seasons), the dry spell in Vancouver (and their weird season to-date), and the complete and utter tire fire in Toronto (which'll hopefully conclude with Randy Carlyle being shot into outer space).. 

Click past the jump to stream the podcast!

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The Log Off Podcast: Picking Team Canada

Dimitri Filipovic
January 06 2014 06:00PM


Devan Dubnyk is Canada's #1 goaltender heading into Sochi.

It has been a while since Cam and I have recorded a podcast for NHL Numbers, but it's a new year, and as a resolution of sorts we've decided that we'd like to crank out 2-a-week in 2014. What better topic the return of the pod than the players Team Canada will be taking to represent the country in Sochi.

We spent roughly 40 minutes or so breaking down Bob McKenzie's proposed team, and making adjustments as we saw fit. At least that's what we did for the forwards and defensemen. For the 3 goalies, we used a slightly less scientific strategy of picking names out of a tuque (how very Canadian of us, I know..).

Click past the jump to stream the podcast!

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Monte Carlo Method and Final Standing Predictions

Josh W
January 03 2014 10:39AM

Monte Carlo simulations are a really fun and interesting way to make predictions in just about anything, and this can be applied to many fields including hockey. Many different websites and experts use Monte Carlos to make predictions in hockey to determine final standings and points of teams. In this experiment, I create my own Monte Carlo to see if I can make similar prediction with reasonable outcomes. I then apply this method to the Vancouver Canucks and the Canadian teams in general.

To read learn more on my method, continue past the jump:

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