Number Chains - November 22, 2012 Links

Josh L.
November 22 2012 11:21AM

This new, regular feature on NHLNumbers will share interesting stats-related posts from around the web almost every day.

Welcome to edition number 14 of the rebooted Number Chains. In this space you will be able to find the best analytical hockey writing from around the internet on a close-to-daily basis. Subject matter will include statistical evaluation, financial analysis, contractual issues, and (sometimes) closely-related tangential works. If you have something you would like to submit for a future edition (your writing or that of someone else) feel free to send it to me via Twitter @JoshL1220 or leave a comment.

In this Thanksgiving edition of Number Chains we salute Matt Duchene for dumping on every one of his teammates in Sweden except Joel Lundqvist. Adrian Dater pulled these quotes:

"Joel Lundqvist is a perfect example. He always works his ass off. Everyone should do that. But I'm not so sure everyone gets that. We just can't play this bad. It is so poor. We were getting booed by our own fans, it's unacceptable. They pay a lot of money to watch us and it's not fair of us to play so bad."

"If this was in the NHL, five players would be sent down to the minors after a game like this. But here, players are too comfortable. There are 33 million Canadians that would sacrifice an arm to play hockey at this level."

Harrison Mooney went on to point out something fairly depressing in response at Puck Daddy:

Strong words from Duchene, who is one of the youngest guys on his team. Granted, age ain't nothing but a number in Colorado. Heck, Home Alone 2: Lost in New York was released two days before their captain was born.

I'm officially old. All the lockout news you can handle is after the jump.

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Scoring in Switzerland

Scott Reynolds
November 21 2012 04:07PM

Photo by Krm500 via Wikimedia Commons

One of the more interesting things about an extended lockout is the opportunity to see NHL players mix with non-NHLers in various European leagues. When you look at the top of any league's scoring chart, there tends to be mixture of proven NHL talent, and players in the prime of their careers who haven't been able to find a regular gig in the best league in the world. Every NHL team wants to find reliable scoring, and seasons like this one tend to highlight some players who might be able to fill that role but haven't yet had a chance.

Of course, reliable scoring isn't just expensive because it tends to cost a lot of money. Trying a new player also carries a huge opportunity cost, and it's that opportunity cost, which sometimes sees really effective players change teams with almost nothing going the other way. Rich Peverley is a recent example of a player who couldn't get a consistent opportunity in a scoring role with his first NHL organization despite sterling numbers in the AHL. But after Peverley moved to Atlanta, he was given that chance immediately, and had tremendous success. The same thing is true of AHL stars P.A. Parenteau and Matt Moulson who both established themselves with the New York Islanders in their mid-twenties after failing to get an opportunity elsewhere.

So which players might be worth taking a chance on for teams who have room on their roster to give a player with a history of success in lower leagues a chance? Today, I'll take a look at some candidates from Switzerland's National League.

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The NHLPA's Recent Offer

Kent Wilson
November 21 2012 12:25PM

The players union unveiled a new CBA offer this morning. It is fairly comprehensive and, unlike some of their previous offerings, has a sound basis for negotiation (from a league perspective, naturally).

The most significant movement is on the issue of player share of hockey reltaed revenue. The players accept an immediate 50/50 with the stipulation that the teams "make whole" existing contracts to he tune of $393 million spread over four years:

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The Friends with Numbers Podcast, Episode 2: "I'm Going To Pass it Over to You, Stats"

NHLnumbers Podcast
November 21 2012 07:40AM

We're back! In this edition of the podcast, we discuss the notion that analytical evaluation these days has taken away the ability to be surprised by the events of a game. Has it changed the way stories are being told? Plus, we look into other ideas such as coaches adapting their style based on the personnel they have in front of them, defensemen requiring a longer time to develop, and some of the lesser talked about components of the Corsi metric.

We would love to hear from you, the listener, for suggestions on future topics of discussion. Rather than us just being in our own little world, we'd like to make this as interactive a show as possible. Feel free to tweet at either  Dimitri  or Cam .

Click Past the Jump to Listen to the Podcast.

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Playing with Crosby and IPP

Scott Reynolds
November 20 2012 03:17PM

Photo by Michael Miller via Wikimedia Commons

Last month, I looked at something called individual point percentage (IPP) both for forwards and for defensemen. To recap the concept, individual point percentage is a calculation of the number of times an individual player gets a point (either a goal or an assist) relative to the number of total goals scored while he's on the ice. So, for example, if a player is on the ice for fifty goals-for during five-on-five play over the course of the season and he gets a point on forty of them, his individual point percentage at five-on-five would be 80%.

Most forwards end up at about 70% over the long haul, but there are some that buck the trend. Sidney Crosby led the league over the last four seasons with an IPP of 84%. One of the things discussed in the comments to those posts was what kind of impact playing with a guy like Crosby might have. Points are assigned on a zero-sum basis, so if he's getting more, who's getting less? 

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