July 28 2012 04:41PM
One of my favourite tools in evaluating prospects is Gabriel Desjardins' NHL equivalencies. The basic premise is that we can expect each player to bring only a portion of his offense from the league he played in last year were he to make the jump to the NHL. By observing how much offense other players brought from these other leagues in the past, we can estimate how much offense (on average) to expect from players from those leagues in the future.
It's an imperfect assessment of skill for sure -- we're just measuring offense after all -- and I think it generally works better for forwards than defenders (and goalies!), but it's one indicator for whether or not a player might one day find success in the NHL. It also gives us a tool to compare players in different leagues (although with young players it makes sense to cut the guys playing in the professional leagues some extra slack). After the jump I'll explain the system in a bit more depth and look at the performance of each of the forwards drafted in 2012 (in the days, we'll look at the forwards drafted in 2011, 2010, and 2009 over the next few days).
July 28 2012 11:46AM
Alexander Semin, Marcusvfx/Wikimedia Commons
Every franchise needs to gamble a little bit if they want to become a contender. This is especially true when it comes to signing free agents because you are essentially taking a risk whenever you sign a player to a contract. The degree of the risk is usually determined by the amount of money awarded to the player or the length of the contract. Teams are more likely to take long-term risks on players who are proven top-level talents (see Zach Parise and Ryan Suter) while lower, short-term deals are normally given out to those who have a number of question marks surrounding them (see Peter Mueller, Brad Boyes and Wojtek Wolski).
July 23 2012 09:11AM
Quality of competition faced is often used qualitatively when assessing a player’s performance, but a quantitative adjustment has proven elusive. It has been widely presumed that the difficulty arises from stratification of playing time; if the players who face top competition are usually themselves good players, then we would not see facing top competition correlating with poor results.
July 22 2012 10:46AM
The on-going Shea Weber drama is making the deep summer a bit more interesting than it would have been otherwise. Will the Flyers snatch Weber away from Nashville and cripple the Predators in the the wake of possibly their most successful season ever? Will Poile and company match? If not, will the Preds GM turn to the demon drink in bitterness? Stay tuned to find out!
This week, Allan discussed the Weber issue (and much more!) with guests Tom Lynn, Harrison Mooney, Ryan PIke and Jonh Matisz.
This is Nation Radio.
July 19 2012 01:02PM
Shea Weber is smiling knowing that he will make $110 million for the remainder of his NHL career. That's some pretty sweet financial security for Weber, but I wonder what Preds' GM David Poile is thinking right now?
Does he match or take four first-round picks?