June 12 2012 11:39AM
Photo by Bri Weldon, via Wikimedia Commons
Aside from Mathew Dumba's leapfrog of Mikhail Grigorenko, the top 12 in our consensus list remained the same. Nail Yakupov has gone from the strong consensus #1 to the unanimous #1 and Filip Forsberg has lengthened his lead on Alex Galchenyuk, but the list has held steady.
The big movers in June jumped into the back half of the first round. Rogle's Hamphus Lindholm moved five spots to #16, Oshawa's Scott Laughton moved 19 spots to #23 and Henrik Samuelsson moved thirteen spots to #30.
Future Considerations describes Lindholm as "...a very aggressive puck rushing defenseman with a high offensive upside. He starts rushes quickly with his high-end skating ability and vision." But with a significant downside, namely, his defensive game: "He makes bad decisions and is not hard enough on the puck. Inconsistent play is the biggest detraction from Lindholm’s game. He can force things and tries to make low percentage passes that turn into odd-man rushes or scoring chances against."
Hockey Prospectus' Corey Pronman thinks Laughton is "...a quick, smart effective player with an average skill level who is a "does all the little things" type of guy in the lineup and seems to always be around the play." but doesn't think he projects into the top six in the NHL.
The Scouting Report thinks Samuelsson is a grinder, noting he's "...a strong complementary player that does the dirty work, but has enough skill to finish off plays as well." But he isn't going to be an offensive dynamo, "Skating is pretty average, and his offensive puck skills aren’t going to blow you away..."
The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Redline Report, Future Considerations, ISS, Craig Button, Hockey Prospectus, The Scouting Report, and Win Shares via Nick, A.K.A. Mathletic. Their prior records are used to establish a weighting so that the opinions of the more accurate (McKenzie and Button) have more value than the opinions of the less accurate.
June 11 2012 04:44PM
Stop me if you've heard this one: a National Hockey League team overpaid for a bottom six role player. Granted, Chris Kelly had a 20-goal season, a career-high, but he also "led" the NHL in PDO and had a 16.3% shooting rate. Essentially, his percentages, and his age (32 next season) probably indicate that future success from Kelly is a bad bet.
June 11 2012 12:38PM
The Colorado Avalanche have told the world "I'm A Believer" when it comes to David Jones. Last week they inked Jones to a four year deal with a four million dollar average annual value. They spent this coin on a forward with 67 goals in 239 career games. The initial thought I had was "Oh My My", but perception isn't always correct. The contract deserves a closer look to see if the Avs have legitimate reasons to believe or if they're really just "Daydream Believers".
June 09 2012 08:41AM
This new, regular feature on NHLNumbers will share interesting stats-related posts from around the web every week.
Player Usage Charts are here!
2011-12 NHL Player Usage Charts for every NHL team, accompanied by expert insights from a field of 20+ analysts, are now available for download here
Obviously we believe very strongly in the usefulness of these charts. We've already used Player Usage Charts repeatedly on NHL Numbers, like when Josh Lile looked at the Dallas Stars, or when I looked at last year's rookies, or the league's top defensive pairings for example, and very rarely does an article go by without at least some mention of one of its core components (Offensive Zone Starts, Quality of Competition or Relative Corsi). In fact, we might be giving away our secret by providing these ground breaking statistics in such an understandable fashion - we might have to soon rely solely on Wanye's wit for our readership.
Others have picked up on Player Usage Charts since it was unveiled June 1st, including:
- Daniel Wagner covered the Vancouver Canucks over at Pass it to Bulis Vancouver Sun Sports Blogs.
- He also previewed the New Jersey Devils and Los Angeles Kings series over on the score.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning were covered over at Raw Charge.
- Dirk Hoag covered the Nashville Predators over at On the Forecheck
- Graeme Nichols handled the Ottawa Senators over at the 6th Sens (I see Daigle people).
- And Derek Jedamski covered the Buffalo Sabres for the Buffalo Examiner
Several of us contributed to this project, including me, Kent Wilson, Jonathan Willis, Eric Tulsky, Corey Sznajder and Josh Lile, and we almost all use them on a regular basis, so we're quite proud to have unveiled this last Friday. So download the PDF, print it off, grab a cold one, sift through it this week-end, and let us know what you think.
Also unveiled this week was this year's look at zone entries over at Broad Street Hockey. The fine folks over there, including Eric T and Geoff Detweiler, examine every single Philadelphia Flyer zone entry and then conduct some fascinating analysis on the consequences of various strategies. Truly ground-breaking stuff here.
While on the topic of how teams act differently depending on the score and the impact that it can have, the imcomparable Tyler Dellow over at MC79 hockey looked at the most dangerous lead in hockey.
"The really funny thing about this is that playing conservatively seems to have little in the way of benefits for the team leading. If you calculate the points on the basis of regulation win being worth two points and a regulation tie being worth 1.5, you would expect the teams leading by one to average 1.66 points. Actual average points collected by teams leading by one heading into the third: 1.67. The real beneficiaries are the teams trailing by one heading into the third period. Their expected points per game is 0.56. They actually averaged 0.64 points per game."
Finally, Brodeur is a Fraud took a look at Darryl Sutter's effect on goalies
"Throughout his career, Sutter's goaltenders have routinely been above average. Sutter-led teams have only posted a below-average save percentage in two out of his dozen seasons as an NHL coach, and in every one of the remaining ten his team was at least .006 above the league benchmark in save rate"
We'll end this week with a cheap plug of my own work over at Hockey Abstract where I've collected lots of raw statistical data, including Player Usage Charts, for every single pending Unrestricted Free Agent. Download a copy and figure out who should go where.
June 08 2012 01:57PM
As we get closer to the NHL Draft, you will see even more bloggers and media pundits continue to breakdown prospects and determine which player is the right fit for each team. They will look at stats, game tape and video packages to get the full lowdown on the players they are targeting, but asset that seems to be valued more than others is how big a player is at draft time.
Size and “big body presence” are things that are praised by a lot of hockey observers, especially around draft time. The idea is that it will take more effort to keep the puck away from bigger forwards and that they can provide room for their linemates by adding a physical edge. Being concerned about size makes sense when looking at defensemen because they are expected to be involved physically if they play big minutes. What about forwards, though?
There have been bigger forwards such as Rick Nash, Alex Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk who have gone on to be top-tier players in the NHL, but just how big of a factor is size if you plan on drafting a forward? Let’s say that you are an NHL general manager and your first round pick comes down to two forwards with similar numbers. One player is 5-10 and 190 lbs. and the other is 6-3 210 lbs. but has slightly worse numbers than the first forward. Which player should you take and how much of a role should size play in your decision?
To see how big of a role size plays in success at the NHL level, I looked at every forward drafted in the top 100 since the 2000 Draft and examined how successful they were based on their point-per-game total.